2025 Fleet Industry Trends and 2024 Post-mortem

Last Updated: February 11, 2025By

A new year means new industry trend predictions, and 2025 could see some major changes with the incoming administration. These trends lists have become a bit of a trend themselves and can generally be useful as an overview of what to expect broadly so fleet stakeholders can better anticipate and plan for potential challenges. But before we dive into the trends for 2025, let’s take a step back and look at some of 2024’s predictions to see how they panned out.

2024 Post-mortem
2024 trends revolved largely around three major categories: economic instability, fallout from escalating wars and increased emissions regulations. While these categories are broad, they each play a role in overall operational costs.

Economic instability was something many fleets had to contend with over the course of 2024, though toward the end of the year, the U.S. Federal Reserve started cutting the interest rate, signaling an easing of inflation. Since the initial cuts, however, the Fed is looking to slow 2025 rate cuts due to inflation remaining above its two-percent target, according to the Associated Press.

Another economic challenge was increased fiscal spending, an inflationary move hurting both consumers and business owners alike. “As the federal debt mounts, the government will spend more of its budget on interest costs, increasingly crowding out public investments,” according to the Peter G. Peterson Foundation. “As more federal resources are diverted to interest payments, there will be less available to invest in areas that are important for economic growth.”

When it comes to fallout from escalating wars, we did see associated challenges. Billions of U.S. dollars going to fund Israel and Ukraine helped strain an already substantial $36T+ national debt, helping continue inflation in the U.S.

As for emissions regulations, 2024 saw more ambitious targets put in place for the future, including “more protective final standards to further reduce harmful air pollutant emissions from light-duty and medium-duty vehicles starting with model year 2027” as well as “standards to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from heavy-duty vehicles in model year 2027 [with] more stringent standards for model years 2028 through 2032,” according to U.S. EPA.

2025 Fleet Industry Trends
1. The Potential for Worker Strikes
We’ve seen a slew of worker strikes over the past couple of years with the UAW strike in particular causing a shortage of vehicles at dealerships, interrupting the fleet vehicle supply chain, and creating longer lead times for vehicle acquisitions. In October of last year, the UAW called for another strike — this time a general strike, which includes a collective of unions — slated to take place in 2028, when the UAW’s most recent contracts with the “Big Three” expire.

We also had the three-day-long International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) strike which, though short-lived, did some damage. After a tentative deal was struck regarding wage increases, the strike was put on hold until January 15, as health benefits and port automation still needed to be addressed. As of early January, however, the ILA and U.S. Maritime Alliance struck a tentative six-year deal to avoid port closures, making at least one strike less likely to occur in 2025.

2. The Year of Automation
2025 could be a big year for automation in fleet — both for management and on the road. Many fleet managers have been working to improve their process automation game using fleet technologies like management software and optimization platforms. As fleets gain more ability to automate things like work orders, inventory resupply, reports, etc., they can save time and better ensure critical issues and duties are addressed.

On the subject of autonomous vehicles (AVs), safety, investment, and scale have all been a barrier to entry, but 2024 saw some exciting gains that may allow the industry to hit major strides in 2025. Gatik AI Inc., a leader in autonomous middle mile logistics, unveiled “the scope of a comprehensive safety case assessment for its Freight-Only operations (deliveries without a human driver onboard) across North America [marking its commitment] to launching Freight-Only operations at scale.”

Investments are likewise gaining traction with S&P Global reporting that in “the summer of 2024, Waymo’s parent Alphabet said it would invest up to US $5 billion into the startup, which also unveiled the sixth generation of its Waymo Driver autonomous driving system. Waymo operates a fleet of nearly 800 self-driving vehicles in California and more in Phoenix.”

3. The U.S. Under a New Administration
A new administration can have numerous effects on the fleet industry depending on the policies set forth and carried out, and an easing of emissions regulations is at the top of the list. The new Secretary of Transportation, Sean Duffy, “signed an order Tuesday seeking to roll back key fuel economy standards set by President Joe Biden,” according to Hawaii Tribune Herald. “The order is the latest effort by the Trump administration to roll back initiatives introduced by the Biden administration aimed at promoting electric vehicles and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. A rollback in sustainability initiatives provides fleets a better opportunity to plan for and enact EV adoption at a pace that suits their business and operational needs.

As with the past several years, the economy will play a major role in impacting fleet operating costs. While many things affect the economy, inflation is one of the biggest — and government spending is a driving force behind it. Within days of becoming President, we’re already getting a glimpse at which initiatives are top of mind for Trump, who has been quite vocal about curbing wasteful government spending. This includes creating the Department of Government Efficiency, with an ambitious goal of cutting $2T in spending, which could — while not without its complications — play a major role in reducing inflation.

Of course, we can’t talk about the economy without addressing the elephant in the room: tariffs. Throughout the election cycle, tariffs have been touted as a tax on consumers and, when implemented poorly, they surely can be. They can cause supply chain disruptions and hike up prices of both domestically and internationally sourced goods. On the other hand, tariffs can be a useful bargaining chip to incentivize other countries to purchase U.S. goods as a way to avoid the tariffs and — especially when applied in conjunction with cutting corporate taxes — can incentivize on-shoring or near-shoring of manufacturing, leading to higher freight volumes and domestic economic growth.

Rachael Plant is a senior content marketing specialist for Fleetio, a fleet optimization platform that helps organizations run, repair, and optimize their fleet operations.