U.S. Trailer Sales Surge Year-Over-Year, But Challenges Loom

The U.S. trailer market is kicking off 2025 with a mix of strong demand and underlying uncertainty. According to FTR, January’s net trailer orders reached 23,966 units—an 81% increase year-over-year (y/y), but a slight 2% decline month-over-month (m/m). This marks the third consecutive month of y/y growth, signaling resilience in demand. However, despite the positive start to the year, total trailer net orders for the 2025 order season (September 2024–January 2025) are down 21% compared to last year, totaling 98,926 units.

Production Struggles to Keep Pace

While trailer orders remain relatively strong, production is struggling to keep up. January saw a modest 2% m/m increase in total trailer production, reaching 12,042 units. But compared to the same time last year, production is down a staggering 35%—46% below the seven-year January average. In fact, January’s production output was the second lowest recorded since 2010. With orders significantly outpacing production, backlog levels surged by 12,210 units, pushing the backlog/build ratio to 9.7 months—the highest since February 2023. This signals a possible easing of pressure on OEMs to scale back production further, but the overall picture remains uncertain.

Shifting Priorities and Market Pressures

One of the biggest factors impacting trailer sales is fleet purchasing behavior. Dan Moyer, senior analyst for commercial vehicles at FTR, notes that many fleets are prioritizing purchasing power units (tractors) over trailers. This trend is unlikely to reverse anytime soon, particularly as the EPA’s 2027 NOx regulations approach. As a result, North American Class 8 net orders have risen by 4% y/y, while U.S. trailer net orders have dropped 21% in the same period.

Adding to market concerns, upcoming tariffs are threatening to disrupt supply chains and inflate costs. A 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports is set to take effect next month, on top of the existing 10% tariff on Chinese imports. Additionally, the possibility of renewed 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports looms in the background. These tariffs will not only impact fully assembled trailers coming into the U.S., but also domestically produced trailers, which rely heavily on imported materials and components. OEMs now face the dual challenge of rising material costs and supply chain volatility, which could further strain an already pressured production landscape.

What’s Next for the Trailer Market?

Despite the strong y/y growth in orders, the broader trailer market still faces hurdles. Fleet priorities are shifting, production remains below historical norms, and external factors like tariffs could add another layer of complexity. While the backlog increase suggests OEMs may have some breathing room, the long-term trajectory depends on how fleets balance their equipment investments and how manufacturers navigate cost pressures.

For now, the industry is in a delicate balancing act. Strong orders indicate continued demand, but whether the market can sustain this momentum amid economic and regulatory uncertainties remains to be seen. One thing is clear: 2025 is shaping up to be a year of both opportunity and challenge for trailer manufacturers and buyers alike.

For more information, check out the report from FTR here.