If you run an over-the-road (OTR) trucking operation, you’ve felt the pressure of diesel prices firsthand. Whether you’re an owner-operator or managing a small fleet, fuel is one of your biggest expenses—and one of the most unpredictable. Over the past year, diesel prices have moved up and down in ways that challenge even the best-run operations.

This article breaks down what’s happened with diesel pricing, what’s driving the changes, and how OTR carriers like you can cut costs without sacrificing efficiency.

Diesel Prices: The Current Landscape

As of late March 2025, the national average price for diesel was $3.567 per gallon. That’s up slightly from the previous week but down over 11% from this time last year. While that might seem like good news, prices are still higher than what many OTR carriers were used to pre-pandemic—and the ups and downs make it hard to budget fuel on a month-to-month basis.

What’s Causing Diesel Prices to Fluctuate?

Crude Oil Prices Are the Foundation

The biggest driver of diesel costs is crude oil. When oil prices rise, diesel follows. A spike earlier this year put pressure on fuel costs across the board, reminding carriers how closely tied they are to global oil markets—whether they haul in New Mexico or New Jersey.

Weather and Seasonal Demand

Winter can drive up diesel prices fast, especially when heating oil demand increases. In early 2025, colder temperatures led to higher diesel use, even as freight demand cooled. These seasonal swings affect fuel availability, particularly for long-haul routes where remote fueling options are limited.

Speculation and Geopolitics

Sometimes, prices rise not because of shortages—but because traders expect one. A March 2025 report explained how fear and speculation were pushing diesel futures higher, even when actual supply was stable.

Policy and Biofuels

Regulations around renewable diesel, subsidies, and trade policy have a real effect on what you pay at the pump. A recent contraction in the biofuels sector is creating uncertainty in diesel alternatives, limiting fuel options in some states.

 

Was the Diesel Shortage Real?

In late 2022, reports circulated that the U.S. had only 25 days of diesel left. That sounded scary—but it wasn’t the full story. CBS News clarified that this was a rolling inventory, not a countdown to zero. Still, in parts of the Northeast and along some rural OTR routes, real shortages caused delays, detours, and long lines at fuel stops.

 

How OTR Carriers Can Cut Fuel Costs in 2025

If you’re running across multiple states every week, you can’t afford to guess on fuel management. Here are proven strategies tailored for the realities of life on the road:

Route Smarter:
Use load boards or dispatch software that factors in fuel costs and mileage. Avoid routes with excessive tolls, hills, or long stretches between fuel stops.

Train Drivers (Or Yourself):
Small driving changes can yield big savings. Limiting idling, keeping a steady speed, and coasting to a stop can improve fuel economy by 5–10%. Multiply that by 100,000+ miles a year, and it adds up.

Use Fuel Cards:
Programs like RTS, EFS, and Mudflap offer significant discounts at major truck stops. Don’t pay retail if you don’t have to.

Keep Your Rig in Top Shape:
Underinflated tires, clogged filters, or alignment issues burn more fuel. Regular maintenance is non-negotiable if you want maximum miles per gallon.

Know Where to Fuel Up:
Apps like Trucker Path or GasBuddy for truckers show the cheapest diesel along your route. Stopping 50 miles earlier—or later—could save you $50 or more per fill-up.

Consider Fuel Hedging (for Small Fleets):
Some small fleet owners are teaming up with co-ops or using third-party services to lock in bulk fuel prices. It’s not for everyone, but it’s worth exploring if volatility is killing your margins.

 

Questions OTR Carriers Should Be Asking

• Do I know my cost per mile—and how much of that is fuel?
• Am I tracking fuel spend by load or route?
• Would new technology like an APU or trailer skirting improve my MPG?
• Can I renegotiate contracts or rates based on changing fuel costs?
• Are there state or federal rebates I’m missing out on?

 

Final Word

Fuel might be your biggest variable expense, but it doesn’t have to control your operation. By staying informed about what’s driving diesel prices and applying proven cost-saving strategies, you can keep your operation profitable—even when the market shifts.

Whether you’re a one-truck owner-operator or running a 30-truck fleet, managing diesel spend is a full-time job. But with the right tools and approach, it’s a job you can win.